Back to the work

Adaptive rank fusion

Research in progress / IC(R/W)-RRF

A continuing investigation

When search
methods disagree.

Several rankings.
One ordered list.

One search method puts a document first. Another puts it fifth. I’m exploring how their different perspectives should come together, and when adapting that combination helps.

01

The mechanism

Reciprocal rank fusion

A ranked list is simply a set of results in order. Reciprocal rank fusion gives each document a contribution from every list in which it appears. A higher position contributes a little more. Those contributions form one combined order.

Follow the same letter across the lists below. Then change the third list and see what moves.

An illustrative calculation

Follow one document through the lists.

Each search method returns an ordered list. Give a document credit for its position in each list, then combine those contributions into one score.

Each method puts a different document first. B appears second in all three.

Search results

Method 1

  1. Document A
  2. Document B
  3. Document D
  4. Document C
  5. Document E
  6. Document F

Search results

Method 2

  1. Document C
  2. Document B
  3. Document A
  4. Document E
  5. Document F
  6. Document D

Search results

Method 3

  1. Document D
  2. Document B
  3. Document C
  4. Document F
  5. Document A
  6. Document E

Reciprocal rank fusion

One combined list

Document B is highlighted through the three source lists and the combined result.

Document B

One contribution from each list

Method 1Rank 2

1 / (60 + 2)

0.016129

Method 2Rank 2

1 / (60 + 2)

0.016129

Method 3Rank 2

1 / (60 + 2)

0.016129

Add the three contributions, then divide by three.

(0.016129 + 0.016129 + 0.016129) ÷ 3= 0.016129

Document B is number 1 in the combined list. This score follows from the supplied ranks; it does not tell us whether the document is relevant.

The rule: each list contributes 1 / (60 + rank). The offset of 60 softens the difference between nearby positions. Rank begins at 1, so first place contributes 1 / 61. Average the contributions across the lists. This matches the baseline’s equal weighting; summing instead gives the same order.

A–F are invented document labels. These are illustrative rankings, not research queries or saved evaluation results. Values are rounded for display; the ordering uses unrounded scores. Exact ties use alphabetical order in this example.

02

The hypothesis

The confidence hypothesis

Position is a useful starting point. I wanted to test whether the combination could also respond to confidence in a particular result, agreement among search methods, and differences between queries.

I built adaptive variants and compared them with ordinary RRF. The first setup combined four lexical search methods: BM25, tuned BM25, TF-IDF and query likelihood. They produced their rankings over shared candidate passages.

The research question

When does listening differently
lead to a better ordering?

03

The experiment

Results under changed conditions

The confidence variant improved the recorded top-ten measure in the original four-method setup. Adding a fifth method, which considers how close query terms appear to one another, reversed the comparison. The early advantage also did not carry over to the second collection.

The measure here, NDCG@10, rewards relevant documents nearer the top of the first ten results. Each setting has its own comparison.

From the saved experiment recordThe comparison changes with the setting.
Ordinary RRF Confidence variant · v5

NDCG@10 · higher is better · axis detail: 0.34–0.47 · full 0–1 scale

The confidence variant leads in the original setting, then falls behind.Saved TREC Deep Learning results. Original four rankers in 2019: ordinary RRF 0.3645, confidence variant 0.3800. With proximity: 0.4031 and 0.3698. Original four in 2020: 0.4483 and 0.4373. Exact values also appear in the table below.0.340.360.380.400.420.440.460.47The original four2019 · 43 judged queries0.36450.3800Add a fifth perspective2019 · the same 43 queries0.40310.3698Original four, new collection2020 · 54 judged queries0.44830.4373

The original four

2019 · 43 judged queries

Ordinary RRF0.3645
Confidence v50.3800

Add a fifth perspective

2019 · the same 43 queries

Ordinary RRF0.4031
Confidence v50.3698

Original four, new collection

2020 · 54 judged queries

Ordinary RRF0.4483
Confidence v50.4373

Saved exploratory results from project-generated rankings on TREC Deep Learning collections. These are aggregate ranking scores under the project’s evaluation method, not percentages of correct answers. The phone bars use the full 0–1 scale.

Read the values and all four methods +
Saved NDCG@10
SettingOrdinary RRFConfidence v5Mixture v6Selector v7
The original four2019 · 43 judged queries0.36450.38000.38320.3785
Add a fifth perspective2019 · the same 43 queries0.40310.36980.3962Not reported
Original four, new collection2020 · 54 judged queries0.44830.43730.43930.4644
Two different questions

“Better” depends on
what you measure.

In the initial 2019 comparison, the confidence variant raised the top-ten score. The reciprocal-rank measure, which rewards finding the first relevant result sooner, fell.

Top-ten ranking · NDCG@10
0.3645 0.3800
First relevant result · reciprocal rank
0.7308 0.7108

Ordinary RRF → confidence v5. Saved aggregate results for the original four-ranker, 43-query setting.

04

The next experiments

Adaptive fusion methods

The changed result opened two directions: respond directly to agreement between rankings, or learn which method to choose from examples with judged relevance.

v6 / Agreement-dependent mixture

Agreement between rankings

Ranked listsOverlapMix

For each query, inspect how much the methods’ top 30 results overlap. Use that agreement, along with differences in rank, to adjust the combination.

Agreement is observable. It does not, by itself, establish that a result is relevant.

v7 / Trained selector

A trained method selector

FeaturesSelectorChoose

Learn from judged examples which method works better for a query. A small classifier then uses rank and score features to choose ordinary RRF or the confidence variant.

Training uses relevance judgments. A new query is routed using its ranking features.

The transfer test

Transfer between collections

The saved selector exceeded all three fixed alternatives within the 2020 collection. In 2019 it beat ordinary RRF but trailed the confidence variant and the mixture. Training on one collection and applying it to the other did not beat the best fixed comparison in either direction.

Train on 2019 test on 2020

0.4412 selector vs. 0.4483 ordinary RRF

Train on 2020 test on 2019

0.3800 selector vs. 0.3832 mixture v6

Saved NDCG@10. These comparisons describe two tested transfers, not a limit on what future methods could achieve.

05

Where the work stands

Current checkpoint

This is a continuing investigation, now paused at the checkpoint after cycle 23. I test a hypothesis, inspect what changed, and use that evidence to decide what to test next.

The adaptive results above remain exploratory. Those collections contain 43 and 54 judged queries, use related candidate data and project-generated rankers, and have not been independently reproduced here. Tuning and evaluation were not fully separated.

The later cycles separated them on SciFact, where the systems were fixed before the collection was first measured, and then worked on 30 reused TREC-COVID topics as a disclosed development panel. The work now runs as numbered research cycles, twenty-three so far. The experimental ones commit their protocol, comparisons and stop rules before any outcome is read. They added a fifth source, SPLADE++, a ranker trained to weight words, used as saved rankings, and replaced significance tests with bounds that hold under every completion of the missing relevance judgments. Cycle 05 hit an instrument failure and cycle 22 stopped on a checksum mismatch. Both reports stay in the record, as does cycle 20, where the project’s own controlled test excluded a proposed advantage on the 30 topics tested.

The latest cycle used every eligible team’s automatic submissions to the same 30 topics: 81 runs from 29 teams. Averaging the rankings of a team’s runs and adding one fixed neural reranking run did better than picking one of that team’s runs at random with the same partner, by between 0.24 and 6.35 points of top-ten precision, however the missing judgments turn out. That gain is an average across teams. It holds for 13 teams, reverses for 2 and is unsettled for the rest. These are reused development topics, and 78 of the 81 archive files do not match the checksums listed beside them, so their identity with the original submissions is unverified. A test on fresh topics is the next question the record names, and it has not been designed.

From the saved cycle recordTwenty-nine teams, one interval each.

Of 29 teams, 13 have an interval above zero, 2 below zero, and 14 cross or touch zero. Pooled over all teams the interval is +0.24 to +6.35 P@10 points.

Grouped output minus a random member, same partner · P@10 points

Each row is one team, sorted by its lower bound: its grouped output against one of its own runs chosen at random, both combined with the same fixed partner run. The bounds are logical bounds over every completion of the missing labels, not confidence intervals, on 30 reused topics. Rows are unlabeled; the table below gives every interval.

Read the 29 intervals +
Grouped output minus a random member, P@10 points, sorted by lower bound
RowLowerUpperSign
1−5.78+24.78Not settled
2−3.17+17.83Not settled
3−3.00+0.67Not settled
4−2.78−1.78Negative
5−1.33+4.89Not settled
6−1.33+7.83Not settled
7−1.17+0.33Not settled
8−0.890.00Zero or below
9−0.78−0.44Negative
10−0.44+0.11Not settled
11−0.44+15.44Not settled
12−0.33+1.50Not settled
13−0.22+0.67Not settled
14−0.22+2.00Not settled
15−0.11+20.00Not settled
160.00+1.67Zero or above
17+0.33+0.67Positive
18+1.11+4.00Positive
19+1.22+4.00Positive
20+1.22+10.33Positive
21+1.44+3.78Positive
22+1.67+7.11Positive
23+2.00+2.67Positive
24+2.11+4.56Positive
25+2.11+21.67Positive
26+2.17+4.33Positive
27+2.67+6.78Positive
28+3.11+6.00Positive
29+3.78+16.89Positive
Inside the evaluation record +

What was measured

The project’s harness computes ranking metrics over generated lexical runs and stored relevance judgments. These are saved project results, rather than official submitted systems or a new evaluation run for this page.

What needs reconciliation

The statistical helper uses a normal-tail approximation for a statistic described as a paired t-test. The selector’s reported p = 0.003 compares it with v5; the reported comparison with ordinary RRF is p = 0.125. This record does not establish a general statistically significant improvement over RRF.

Configurations were selected using these same collections. An independent outer evaluation with tuning confined inside each training fold is not shown. A routing-count tally is internally inconsistent, so no routing percentages are presented. The classifier implements nine features, while the specification describes ten.

What follows from that

The comparisons motivate further experiments. They do not establish a universal improvement, a minimum training-set size, an impossibility of transfer, or production effectiveness.

06

Off the benchmark

Two real memories.
One lesson about rules.

In October my agent team asked the same question of two collections it actually searches: its own memory, the reports and records its agents write as they work, and a second, client-domain corpus. Each has about twenty questions whose answers we already know, 19 and 20. Both search with a list that matches meaning, using embeddings, and a list that matches words, using BM25; the client-domain search adds a third, page-level list. The round reused the research code without changing it. It was not one of the numbered cycles: nothing was registered before the scores were read.

The first result was about the test. Our first score on the client-domain corpus was 0.604; the corpus’s own harness reports 0.743. Two evaluation rules explained the whole gap. Counting a result as correct when its address contains the known answer, rather than ends with it, moved the score by 0.22. Fusing whole pages first, rather than passages, moved it by 0.06. With both rules matched, the run reproduced the harness exactly, and no fusion variant moved the score by more than 0.05. A comparison of fusion methods has to state both rules, or it is partly measuring the rules.

From the October round · 20 questions, substring gold (lenient)The rules of the test moved the score more than any method did.

Change in MRR@10 · same questions, same lists · bars run from zero; an outlined bar to the left is a loss

  1. Evaluation rules, changed one at a timeCorrect when the address contains the answer, not ends with it+0.222
  2. Fuse whole pages first, not passages+0.061
  3. Fusion variants against ordinary RRFRRF, k = 10+0.050
  4. Consensus weights (v5 without scores)+0.040
  5. RRF, k = 30+0.036
  6. Mixture v6, forced to fire−0.008
  7. Mixture v6 (never fired; equal list weights)+0.003

Twenty questions with known answers on a client-domain corpus, ordinary RRF unless named. Each rule bar changes that rule alone; each variant bar compares with ordinary RRF under the rules that reproduce the corpus’s own harness. Each variant’s change comes from one to five of the 20 questions moving.

Read every variant on both corpora +
Questions answered first, in the top three, and MRR@10
VariantThe team’s memory19 questions, first labelsA client-domain corpus20 questions, substring gold (lenient)
Ordinary RRF, k = 6011 · 16 of 19 · 0.70612 · 18 of 20 · 0.743
RRF, k = 3011 · 15 of 19 · 0.70213 · 18 of 20 · 0.779
RRF, k = 1011 · 15 of 19 · 0.69414 · 18 of 20 · 0.793
Confidence v5The client-domain lists carry ranks only, so v5 falls back to its consensus weights there.8 · 14 of 19 · 0.61014 · 18 of 20 · 0.783
Mixture v6Never fired on either corpus. Its one changed question on the client-domain corpus comes from the research code’s unweighted RRF base.11 · 16 of 19 · 0.70612 · 18 of 20 · 0.746
Mixture v6, forced to fire11 · 15 of 19 · 0.70212 · 18 of 20 · 0.735
Best single choice per questionAn oracle that picks the meaning list, the word list or ordinary RRF for each question with the answer in hand. Not recomputed for the client-domain corpus under the aligned rules.12 · 16 of 19 · 0.750Not computed

The mixture stayed off.

Mixture v6 adjusts the combination only when the lists’ top 30 results overlap by at least 0.35. Here they barely overlapped: 0.03 to 0.25 on the team’s memory, and a median of 0.14 on the client-domain corpus, where none of the 20 questions reached 0.35. So v6 reduced to ordinary RRF, which is what it was built to do when methods disagree this much. Its +0.003 on the client-domain corpus is one question, and it comes from the research code weighting the three lists equally, not from the mixture. Forced to act on the team’s memory, it changed seven questions, mostly for the worse.

k did not travel.

A smaller RRF constant helped one corpus and hurt the other. At k = 10 the client-domain corpus gained 0.05 and the team’s memory lost 0.012. That is the shape of the TREC transfer above: a gain on one collection, the opposite sign on the next.

Confidence cut both ways, on different tests.

On the team’s memory, confidence v5 lowered the score by 0.10 and first-place answers from 11 to 8. The client-domain lists carry ranks only, so there v5 falls back to its consensus weights, which gained 0.04: three questions up, two down. Different variants on different collections, a few questions each. No claim either way.

07

What it adds up to

Inconclusive, and
worth the next loop.

With 19 and 20 questions, the largest movements are two to four questions. No variant beat ordinary RRF reliably on either corpus. That is consistent with the TREC result; it does not prove it. The team’s memory search stays on ordinary RRF with k = 60.

There is room above it. Choosing the best of the meaning list, the word list and ordinary RRF separately for each question would have scored 0.044 higher on the team’s memory, 0.750 against 0.706. That choice needs a selector that learns from judged questions, and 19 are too few to train one and test it. The team’s search already lets an agent mark each answer as a hit or a miss. That log grows with ordinary work, and it is the next loop: once it holds enough judged questions, the selector can be tested on real memory.

Under a second labeling of the same 19 questions, every variant moved in the same direction.

08

Engineering

Experiment design and evaluation

This is offline research on public search benchmarks. A benchmark gives you questions, candidate documents and judgments of which documents answer which question, and some of those judgments are always missing. The engineering here is what it takes to get a trustworthy answer out of that record. In the experimental cycles I decide the comparison before any score is seen, check the scoring code against the official tool, and work out exactly how far a missing judgment could move the verdict. It runs in none of my products. I did try it once, offline, over the knowledge graph behind Ascend: four RRF fusions among eleven ways of ranking its nodes, scored against blind-graded questions. No pair differed significantly, so the live index stayed as it was.

Protocol

23 numbered cycles · protocol committed first · stop rules · hash-frozen sample frame · failures kept

Each experimental cycle commits what will be compared, which metric decides and when to stop, before any outcome is read.

How it works

Each experimental cycle commits what will be compared, which metric decides and when to stop, before any outcome is read; the two that could not, a retrospective inspection and a post hoc descriptive cycle, say so in their own reports. For the TREC-COVID census, a run over every eligible team’s archived submissions, the set of runs was fixed by a rule frozen before any ranking was downloaded: the 29 teams with at least two automatic submissions, after excluding two teams the project had already used, 81 runs out of 143. The record keeps what stopped as well as what finished: an instrument failure, a data-decoding failure on a first SciFact attempt, and a checksum mismatch that halted cycle 22.

Fusion

RRF k=60 · one-based ranks · math.fsum · Fraction fallback · lcm(61..160) integer kernel · ties by document ID

Every variant starts from one rule: a document scores the sum, over the lists it appears in, of one over sixty plus its rank, with ranks counted from one.

How it works

The contract written for the numbered cycles sums with fsum, falls back to exact rationals if a float overflows, and breaks equal scores by document ID, so rounding and input order cannot decide a place. The earlier harness broke ties by input order, and cycle 01 records the small shift in one saved baseline when that changed. The census cycles score in integers, scaling each term by the least common multiple of 61 through 160, so near-ties are settled exactly.

Sources

7 lexical rankers from scratch · BM25 k1=1.2 b=0.75 · QL Dirichlet μ=2000 · char 4-gram random projection · SPLADE++ cached runs · SHA-256 pinned inputs

The rankers are written from scratch over MS MARCO top-1000 candidates, and the SPLADE++ rankings are cached runs acquired against a pinned SHA-256.

How it works

The rankers are written from scratch over MS MARCO top-1000 candidates: BM25 (k1 1.2, b 0.75) and a tuned BM25, TF-IDF, query likelihood with Dirichlet smoothing (μ 2000), bigram TF-IDF, term proximity and a 256-component random projection of character 4-grams, each keeping its top 200. The SPLADE++ rankings, from a learned-sparse model trained to weight terms, are cached runs, acquired against a pinned SHA-256 with 1,000 candidates per query. No encoder ran here, and the project builds no embeddings or vector index. SciFact’s inputs, a gigabyte across five files, were fetched once and checked against pinned identities before use.

Data identity

publisher checksum compared · stopped attempt preserved · SHA-256 of current archive bytes · every original digest kept · depth cap fixed in advance

Every archived run’s bytes are compared with the checksum its publisher lists. Under the first contract a mismatch stopped the run before evaluation, and that stopped attempt stays in the record.

How it works

A separate contract then identified the current bytes at all 81 official archive URLs, kept every original digest, and reports all 78 mismatches rather than dropping a run. That covered 93,596,624 bytes, 1,979,714 rows and all 2,430 member-query lists, including 244 shorter than the 100-document cap, which was fixed in advance. No label was read before the policies were saved.

Metrics

nDCG@10 · MAP@100 · reciprocal rank · standard-library Python · NIST trec_eval gate · max diff 0.000035

Before the SciFact run, the local binary nDCG@10 was gated against the official NIST trec_eval built at a pinned revision.

How it works

The harness is standard-library Python with the metrics written out: nDCG with exponential gain and the ideal taken from every judged grade, MAP@100 over all relevant documents, and reciprocal rank. Across 11 synthetic queries the largest difference from its four-decimal output was 0.000035, inside a tolerance of 0.00005 frozen in advance.

Missing judgments

sharp bounds · every label completion · not confidence intervals · top-10 RBP p=0.8 · width removed per label · 1,070 later labels

Each missing grade is allowed to take every value it could, the same value on both sides, and the comparison reports the exact lowest and highest mean difference that results.

How it works

Benchmarks judge only some of the documents a system returns. Here an unjudged document is not scored as irrelevant: each missing grade is allowed to take every value it could, the same value on both sides, and the comparison reports the exact lowest and highest mean difference that results. Adding SPLADE++ to four-list RRF came out ahead under every completion: top-10 rank-biased precision (persistence 0.8) between +0.041 and +0.096 on the 43 queries of 2019 and between +0.037 and +0.067 on the 54 of 2020. They are logical bounds on a fixed panel. No confidence interval is involved. Revealing one missing label removes exactly its coefficient of interval width, so unjudged documents can be ranked by how much they would settle. On the 2019 queries, one label per query chosen that way was projected to narrow the interval from 0.0552 to 0.0267, against 0.0325 for labels picked uniformly. On TREC-COVID the same reasoning predicted which comparison new labels would narrow. Then 1,070 later official labels inside the saved candidate scope were revealed, with no ranking touched. The predicted narrowing occurred, and the two-run hybrid’s lead over its lexical source became at least 4 points of precision in the top ten under every completion.

Verification

351 unittest functions · independent reconstruction · 1,669,294 ranking rows · max diff 2.22e-16 · Fraction checker

Separately written checker code rebuilds each cycle’s results, and for SciFact it reconstructed all 1,669,294 ranking rows with exact order and scores.

How it works

Separately written checker code rebuilds each cycle’s results. For SciFact it reconstructed all 1,669,294 ranking rows across four lexical sources and five arms with exact order and scores. The largest per-query metric difference was 2.22e-16, and all five official trec_eval exports matched at four decimals. For the census, a separate checker with its own parsers and exact rational arithmetic rebuilt all 3,300 ordered result heads and every source, policy, analysis and provenance field, and a further read-only audit re-summed the coefficient ledger to confirm both interval endpoints. The research suite defines 351 test functions across 29 files.

From the saved cycle recordOn a new collection, the simpler hybrid won.
Pre-registered contrast, A and B Reference system

Mean binary nDCG@10 · 300 queries · higher is better · axis 0.66 to 0.71, not from zero

  1. A Four lexical lists, RRF0.6673
  2. B Four lexical lists + SPLADE++, RRF0.6867
  3. S SPLADE++ alone0.7036
  4. H BM25 + SPLADE++, RRF0.7054

B − A, the contrast fixed before the run: +0.0193 · 47 queries better, 241 tied, 12 worse

Saved result of one cycle on BEIR SciFact, all 300 test queries, under a protocol frozen the cycle before. Mean binary nDCG@10 with missing judgments scored as zero; no significance test. The SPLADE++ rankings are cached runs, so no model ran here. Adding SPLADE++ to the four lexical lists gave the predicted gain, and the plain two-list hybrid still finished ahead of it.

Limits. This is research and serves no product. The trec_eval gate covered binary nDCG@10 on synthetic queries, and the census heads were not exported through it. The bounds are logical bounds over a fixed panel of queries. They cover neither future queries nor assessor error. The harness’s p-values use a normal tail on 43 and 54 queries, and none is a headline result. The TREC-COVID label check was post hoc on 30 reused topics, and 78 of that census’s 81 archive files did not match their listed MD5, so it describes the archive bytes as downloaded. The v5 to v7 tables are saved results, not reruns. Reconstruction was done by separate code inside the project, and no third party has replicated it.

Research log

The research log, newest first.

24 entries since 10 Sep 2026, the latest on 26 Sep 2026. From Cycle reports in the research repository.

  1. Cycle 23completed

    Grouping a team's archived runs beats a randomly chosen member on average

    Across 29 submission groups and 30 topics, averaging a team's rankings before adding one fixed reference run beats adding that run to a uniformly chosen single member, raising mean top-ten precision by 0.24 to 6.35 points under every completion of missing labels.

    • Limit This covers the current archive files on 30 reused topics (78 of 81 differ from their listed checksums), is not a new method, and only 13 of 29 teams are positive on their own.
  2. Cycle 22failed

    Acquisition stopped before evaluation

    The first archived run's bytes did not match the publisher's listed checksum, so the frozen 81-submission comparison stopped before any evaluation.

    • Limit This is a data identity failure. It gives no evidence for or against averaging submitted outputs.
  3. Cycle 21designed

    An 81-run test frame and a counterexample on control design

    Official metadata yields 29 eligible teams with 81 automatic submissions for a grouped test, and an exact synthetic case shows the earlier control design allows effects of either sign.

    • Limit Metadata and synthetic work only: no new ranking was downloaded or evaluated.
  4. Cycle 20not promoted

    Natural alignment loses to the mean of shuffled controls

    The variants' natural fusion scores about 1.6 points of top-ten precision below the mean of 256 predeclared shuffled controls under every completion of missing labels, excluding the proposed advantage.

    • Limit The controls are built from relevance labels, so their higher mean serves as a diagnostic and cannot be used as a retrieval policy.
Earlier entries (20)
  1. Cycle 19diagnostic

    The exact-pipeline transfer is unavailable

    None of four later TREC-COVID rounds supplies all four original retrieval roles, so the transfer stopped before any rankings or judgments were acquired.

    • Limit This is a feasibility result. It is neither a negative retrieval result nor proof that transfer is impossible.
  2. Cycle 18completed

    Two related variants at a fixed weight: main comparison unresolved

    With two documented variants in place of two repeated copies, the hybrid beats the neural-reranked source alone by 1.7 to 2 points of top-ten precision, but its comparison with the existing hybrid stays between minus 1 and plus 2 points.

    • Limit These are development results on the same 30 reused topics. No untouched query was tested.
  3. Cycle 17not promoted

    A relevant admission can still be an unhelpful exchange

    On 30 TREC-COVID topics, swapping one minority-source result into a two-source hybrid's top ten cannot raise top-ten precision, because its seven relevant admissions displaced seven relevant results.

    • Limit The planned later-label phase failed its preservation check and the follow-up was post hoc. The result covers one fixed policy on 30 reused topics and leaves open whether minority evidence is useful.
  4. Cycle 16diagnostic

    Equal weights keep results found only by the neural source out of the top ten

    On SciFact, 21 known-relevant documents appear only in the neural source's list, yet on every query ten lexically supported documents outrank every result only the neural source retained, so none reaches the fused top ten.

    • Limit This describes existing lists after the fact and tests neither reweighting nor reserved slots.
  5. Cycle 15completed

    SciFact transfer: adding a source helps, simpler baselines lead

    Adding SPLADE++ to four lexical lists raised mean binary nDCG@10 from 0.667 to 0.687 across 300 queries, but SPLADE++ alone (0.704) and a simple two-source hybrid (0.705) scored higher.

    • Limit One collection with conventional binary scoring supports no new fusion method, generalization or significance claim.
  6. Cycle 14designed

    Preparing a transfer that can answer the question

    The cycle fixed a new scientific-abstract collection, five systems and the metric bridge before inspecting any effectiveness result.

    • Limit Preparation only: no retrieval effectiveness was measured.
  7. Cycle 13completed

    Adding SPLADE++ lifts both query sets, with query reversals

    Under a fixed top-ten diagnostic metric, adding SPLADE++ to four-source rank fusion raises the mean on both query sets under every allowed completion of missing judgments, though 9 queries favor the original fusion.

    • Limit This is a finite result on heavily reused development queries. It shows no general superiority and gives no basis for routing queries.
  8. Cycle 12diagnostic

    No justified agent experiment in the existing material

    An inspection of existing retrieval data and one real provenance question found that direct lookup and hash checking already answer it, so no new solver or multi-agent experiment was run.

    • Limit This is a retrospective inspection by investigators who knew the project history. No preregistered experiment was run.
  9. Cycle 11completed

    Correct answers and validity judgments under copied support

    A single language-model verifier gave 4 of 4 correct answers and 16 of 16 correct validity judgments whether valid support was the minority or the majority, leaving no gap here for a multi-agent stage to repair.

    • Limit Direct program solving could produce every correct output, so the result does not show the verifier relied on the evidence.
  10. Cycle 10diagnostic

    A balanced panel rules out the named answer shortcuts

    Across six calls, a language model returned all 18 trace judgments correctly, a pattern no named position, constant or endpoint-only shortcut reproduces.

    • Limit The panel reuses six traces from one arithmetic program, so it shows correct outputs on that program and does not measure general verification ability.
  11. Cycle 9diagnostic

    Correct certificate judgments with an unresolved shortcut

    A language model correctly accepted one valid execution trace and rejected two invalid ones, before and after copies of a bad trace were added.

    • Limit A simpler positional policy also scores perfectly here, so the result does not show step-by-step checking.
  12. Cycle 8designed

    Loop-length panel built, then parked before any model calls

    Eight matched programs passed their construction checks, but an answer imbalance meant an always-false guess could mimic a difficulty effect, so the solver batch was parked.

    • Limit No model responses were collected in this cycle.
  13. Cycle 7failed

    Complete collection, no observed error variation

    Two prompt variants answered all eight small programs correctly, so the gate requiring observable errors and disagreement failed and the setup was parked.

    • Limit This is a negative feasibility result for one small task and says nothing about solver accuracy in general.
  14. Cycle 6failed

    Noisy provenance, incomplete empirical comparison

    Three valid responses closely matched the noise-aware answers, but the provider refused the fourth call and the fixed workflow stopped with four inputs unsent.

    • Limit With five of eight planned inputs lacking a valid response, the primary comparison is null.
  15. Cycle 5 replicationcompleted

    A language model matches the exact Bayesian answers

    With the collector fixed, a language model returned probabilities within 0.00000004 of the exact Bayesian answers on all 20 fixed requests, including the difference between copied and independent agreement.

    • Limit This covers one small, fully specified synthetic model. It does not measure real-world calibration or general reasoning.
  16. Cycle 5failed

    An instrument failure, preserved

    The collector misread empty agent counters as activity and stopped the batch after its first response, leaving the planned test incomplete.

    • Limit The stop came from a measurement bug in the collector, and no model reasoning failure was involved.
  17. Cycle 4completed

    What evidence origin changes, and what it does not

    In an exact synthetic model, knowing which reports share an origin improves probability estimates, while always protecting the dissenting minority makes them worse.

    • Limit These are properties of a deliberately constructed model. No language-model gain was measured and no new aggregation method is claimed.
  18. Cycle 3not promoted

    The observed association does not clear the next-step gate

    Neither year's link between corroboration and relevance cleared the preset ten-point threshold across resampling, so the protocol stopped this branch and moved to a model with known truth.

    • Limit Stopping was a resource decision and leaves open whether specialist sources are useful.
  19. Cycle 2diagnostic

    Better observations reveal a different ambiguity

    SPLADE++ supplies many more judged examples than the lexical sources of top-ten documents no other source ranks highly, but for those documents, support from other lists cannot be separated from whether the old lexical candidates contained them at all.

    • Limit This cycle counted candidates and judgments only; no ranking metric or fusion result was computed.
  20. Cycle 1correction

    What counts as independent evidence?

    After correcting the rank offset and tie handling, a tuned k still helps one six-ranker setup, but it lowers the original four-ranker setup and both transfers between the two query sets lose.

    • Limit Results come from 43 and 54 reused queries, generated lexical rankers and partial relevance judgments.